The main force of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down and the bullish atmosphere still dominates

Market focus: (1) The draft communiqué of the EU summit revealed that European leaders will confirm that the negotiations between the UK and the EU on Brexit have not progressed
.
(2) According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods was 23.
12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.
7%; Among them, exports were 12.
71 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.
8%; Imports were 10.
41 trillion yuan, down 0.
6%.

(3) The EU will impose tariffs ranging from 30.
4% to 48% on aluminum profiles imported from China from Wednesday and will use them until the end
of the investigation, which is expected to be completed in April.

Spot analysis: On October 14, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14960-15000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14980 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 10 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders actively shipped, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was general, the downstream received few goods, and the transaction continued to be flat
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 125371 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 451 tons; On October 13, LME aluminum stocks were 1,412,600 tons, a daily decrease of 9,875 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2011 contract are 72569 lots, a daily increase of 2238 lots, short positions are 91284 lots, a daily increase of 1939 lots, net short positions are 18715 lots, daily decrease of 299 lots, long and short are increased, and net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On October 14, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2011 rushed back down
.
China's September import and export data performed strongly, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum, domestic market demand performed better, and overseas demand also improved, and recent London aluminum inventories continued to deteriorate, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, the IMF warned that despite a significant recovery this year, financial markets will still experience a sharp correction, causing the US index to rebound low; The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is also gradually released, and high profits have also stimulated the release of idle production capacity, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2011 contract position of Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range around 14550-14750 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 80 yuan / ton
each.