The main force of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down and is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern

Market focus: (1) The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States after the quarterly adjustment in May increased by 559,000, 674,000 expected, and the previous value was 266,000
.
(2) The export volume of electrolytic aluminum in major regions of China (2021/5/30-2021/6/6) was about 142,000 tons, a decrease of 03,000 tons
from the previous period.
(3) Century Aluminum will expand the production capacity
of the Holly Hill aluminum smelter.

Spot analysis: On June 7, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 18510-18550 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18530 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 270 yuan
.
The circulating supply is tight, the holders ship at a high price, the receiving party actively enters the market, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the transaction activity is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 102381 tons on Monday, down 5,560 tons from the previous trading day; On June 4, LME stocks stood at 1,676,100 tonnes, an increase of 1,625 tonnes
per day.

Main position: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2107 contract held 132192 lots, minus 1516 lots per day, short positions 118777 lots, daily decrease of 3163 lots, net long positions of 13415 lots, daily increase of 2330 lots, long and short reduction, net increase
.

Market research: The US non-farm payrolls data in May was less than expected, which cooled the Fed's expectations of early QE tapering, and the US dollar index is expected to maintain a weak trend
.
On the supply side, Yunnan's power supply is tight, and the production restrictions and peak shifting production of aluminum plants are expected to continue to exert force for more than a month superimposed on the carbon neutrality policy, and the overall supply increment may be limited
.
On the inventory side, it is still in a state of destocking recently, but the speed has slowed down, and it is generally slower
than the same period of previous years.
On the demand side, most of the recent transactions in the downstream are mainly just demand, and the receiving party actively enters the market, and the transaction is
acceptable.
Overall, the recent aluminum price is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, there is support at the bottom, and the recent risk point lies in the rumors of dumping and macro policy suppression
.