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On Monday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back to the high, with a maximum of 16965 yuan / ton and a minimum of 16455 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 16735 yuan / ton, up 1.
49% from the closing price of the previous trading day; As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun Aluminum reported 2158.
5 US dollars / ton, up 1.
05%
per day.
Market Focus: (1) U.
S.
President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats plan to pass a $1.
9 trillion pandemic assistance package
by mid-March.
(2) As of February 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main markets was 1.
057 million tons, an increase of 123,000 tons from February 18 and an increase of 251,000 tons from February 10
before the Spring Festival.
Spot analysis: On February 22, SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 16710-16750 yuan / ton, the average price was 16730 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton
per day.
Holders are slightly hesitant to sell, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is average, and the transaction is weak.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 107717 tons, an increase of 1101 tons per day; On February 19, LME aluminum stocks were 1354150 tons, down 6,700 tons per day, down 12 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 125937 lots, a daily increase of 12244 lots, short positions of 149761 lots, a daily increase of 16159 lots, a net short position of 23824 lots, a daily increase of 3915 lots, both long and short increases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On February 22, Shanghai aluminum 2104 rushed to the high pullback
.
The US dollar index fell under pressure due to the poor performance of the labor market data released in the United States, coupled with the expectation of the launch of the US fiscal stimulus policy; And the market is optimistic about the accelerated recovery of the United States from the epidemic, and risk sentiment continues to rise
.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, stimulating production capacity to continue to be launched, domestic aluminum inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, but the overall level is still low; Coupled with the expectation of domestic and foreign demand recovery after the holiday, it is expected to support the high operation
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position and closed in the upper shadow, paying attention to the support of the 5-day moving average, and it is expected that the market will adjust
at a high level.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate lightly in the range of 16350-16850 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton
each.
