The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong

Market focus: At 2:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, the British Parliament will hold its first vote on the Brexit bill, and if the withdrawal agreement cannot be approved in Parliament this week, the EU will postpone Brexit until February
2020.
From January to September 2019, the output of major aluminum products increased steadily, with the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum products being 55.
59 million tons, 26.
37 million tons and 37.
8 million tons, respectively, an increase of 4.
7%, 1.
1% and 4.
8%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On October 22, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13910-13950 yuan / ton, the average price was 13930 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton
per day.
Due to the upgrade of the VAT system in Shanghai and Wuxi from the 25th of the month, most traders need to settle in advance, the invoice of the month is slightly lacking, the willingness of the holders to ship is not strong, and the spot premium remains high
.
Downstream manufacturers stock up on a small amount, and although some downstream manufacturers are willing to receive goods, the holders do not ship much, and the actual transaction is not much
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 74,450 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,555 tons, a 4-day decline; On October 21, LME aluminum stocks were 974625 tons, down 2,500 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 1912 contract are 80880 lots, a daily increase of 1949 lots, short positions are 84860 lots, a daily increase of 3116 lots, a net short position of 3980 lots, a daily increase of 1167 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increases
.

On October 22, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1912 rose
slightly.
The Brexit bill faces a parliamentary vote, the current optimism prevails, the pound sterling trend is strong to pressure the dollar, while the current electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains low, electrolytic aluminum inventory dematerialization continues, and downstream aluminum operating rate rebounds, terminal home appliance production year-on-year growth rate expanded, demand has improved, positive for aluminum prices, but the global economic downward pressure increased, China's GDP growth rate continued to decline, market pessimism still exists, superimposed on the fourth quarter electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected, the aluminum price is partially pressured
。 In terms of spot, due to the upgrade of the VAT system, most traders need to settle in advance, the invoice of the month is slightly lacking, the willingness of the holders to ship is not strong, and the spot premium remains high
.
Downstream manufacturers stock a small amount today, and the actual transaction is not much
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract daily MACD green column of Shanghai aluminum shortened, focusing on the support of the 13700 position below, and it is expected that the short-term shock is strong
.