The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and the upward pressure is still large

Market focus: (1) At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the United States will release the December non-farm payrolls report, and the market is expected to increase by 162,000
.
(2) On December 26, Mexico decided to impose an anti-dumping duty of 92.
64% on China's aluminum pressure cookers, valid for 5 years
.
(3) Tesla's global deliveries in 2019 reached 112,000 units, with a cumulative total of 367,500 units for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 50%, and is expected to account for about
17% of global electric vehicle sales.

Spot analysis: On January 10, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 145010-14550 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14530 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 60 yuan / ton
.
Although the holders actively shipped during the day, the willingness of the middlemen to receive goods was not strong, considering that the downstream production was gradually stopped during the upcoming holiday, the receiving was more cautious, and they also tended to accept low-priced goods, and the trading between buyers and sellers was slightly
deadlocked.
Downstream goods are mainly taken on demand during the day, because downstream manufacturers in East China have a holiday about a week later than in the northern region, and there are still some stocks
within the day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 46,165 tons on Friday, a daily increase of 3,326 tons; On January 9, LME aluminum stocks were 1425575 tons, a daily decrease of 13,725 tons, a decline of 13 consecutive days
.
In the week ended January 10, nickel inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 193899 tons, a weekly increase of 5,872 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 73999 lots, a daily increase of 4413 lots, short positions were 80850 lots, a daily increase of 4163 lots, a net short position of 6851 lots, a daily decrease of 250 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: On January 10, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply in 2003
.
Recent U.
S.
employment data is strong, China and the United States will sign the first phase of the agreement, market risk sentiment rebounded, while domestic alumina production continued to decline, alumina prices stabilized and stronger, supporting aluminum prices, but the dollar index rose, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production profits are high, stimulating manufacturers to accelerate the resumption of production, coupled with the end of the year downstream demand weakened, the recent Shanghai aluminum inventory has increased slightly, aluminum prices above the pressure is greater
。 In terms of spot, although intraday holders actively ship, but the willingness of middlemen to receive goods is not strong, considering the upcoming holiday downstream gradually stop production, receiving goods is more cautious, but also tend to receive low-priced goods, downstream intraday on-demand goods
.
Technically, the mainstream short positions of the main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased their positions significantly, paying attention to the resistance above the 14170 position, and it is expected that the short-term upward resistance will be encountered
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 2003 contract can be short around 14130 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14170 yuan / ton
.