The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply and is expected to adjust the high level of the market in the future

Market Focus: (1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said there is a lot of weakness in the job market and there is still a long way to go to achieve full employment
.
(2) The U.
S.
Department of Commerce announced that after seasonal adjustments, new home sales rose 4.
3% last month, equivalent to an annualized rate of 923,000 units
.
This figure was significantly better than expected, after the consensus expected home sales to be around
853,000 units.
(3) It is reported that Inner Mongolia was interviewed due to the serious overcontrol of the national energy consumption increment, but during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the energy consumption indicators of new projects in Inner Mongolia were huge, and the leaders of the autonomous region increased their efforts to engage in environmental protection and ordered electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Mengdong to reduce production
.
(4) My nonferrous metal network data, as of February 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main markets was 1.
108 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons
from February 22.

Spot analysis: On February 25, spot A00 aluminum reported 17540-17580 yuan / ton, the average price was 16740 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation of goods is abundant, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is average, and the transaction activity is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 108,940 tons on Thursday, an increase of 801 tons per day; On February 24, LME aluminum stocks were 1,337,700 tons, a daily decrease of 5,375 tons, a 15-day
decline.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 133641 lots, a daily increase of 10505 lots, short positions of 159837 lots, a daily increase of 12198 lots, a net short position of 26196 lots, a daily increase of 1693 lots, long and short increases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2104 rose
sharply on February 25.
U.
S.
real estate data performed significantly better than expected, coupled with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's continued dovish signals, boosting risk sentiment
.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, stimulating the continuous release of production capacity, superimposed downstream processing enterprises have not fully resumed work, domestic aluminum inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, aluminum prices have been suspended
.
However, it is reported that some aluminum companies in Inner Mongolia have been ordered to reduce production due to environmental protection problems, superimposed on the current inventory is still at a low level, and downstream demand is expected to be good, supporting the high operation of aluminum prices
.
Technically, the main 2104 contract increase in Shanghai aluminum touched the upper limit, paying attention to the 5-day moving average support, and it is expected that the market will adjust
at a high level.