The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply and consolidated at a short-term high

Market focus: (1) The first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement was signed
at the White House in the United States.
(2) At 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the United States will release December retail sales data, which is expected to increase by 0.
3%, up from 0.
2%
in the previous month.
(3) Alcoa expects a global aluminum surplus of between 600,000 and 1 million tons in 2020, down from 1.
1 million to 900,000 tons forecast in 2019
.

Spot analysis: On January 16, spot A00 aluminum reported 14290-14330 yuan / ton, the average price was 14310 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton
daily.
The intraday market supply is tight, the holders do not ship much, but the middlemen receive the goods very actively, the two sides are deadlocked, the actual transaction price premium remains firm, with the rise of aluminum prices, the shipment of holders decreases, the spot premium has not been reduced, and the actual transaction is almost nothing
.
The downstream day is calm and basically enters a state of holiday
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 92,400 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 2,972 tons, an increase of 6 consecutive days; On January 15, LME aluminum stocks were 1367875 tons, a daily decrease of 13,300 tons, and a 17-day
decline.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 83775 lots, a daily increase of 5205 lots, short positions were 89205 lots, a daily increase of 4834 lots, a net short position of 5430 lots, a daily decrease of 371 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.

On January 16, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2003 rose sharply
.
China and the United States face up to the signing of the first phase of economic and trade agreements, and then the specific implementation and further negotiations still need attention, the market is optimistic, while domestic alumina production continues to decline, prices have stabilized, the price of aluminum has formed a support, but at the end of the year downstream demand has become weak, aluminum exports have declined year-on-year, forming a support for aluminum prices, in addition, domestic electrolytic aluminum manufacturers accelerate the resumption of production, the recent domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory recovery trend, Shanghai aluminum near and far month prices expanded, follow-up inventory trend still needs attention
。 In terms of spot, the intraday market supply is tight, the holders do not ship much, but the middlemen receive goods very actively, with the rise in aluminum prices, the shippers shipments decrease, the spot premium has not been reduced, the actual transaction is almost nothing, and the downstream is calm
during the day.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily MACD indicator golden cross, mainstream bulls increased their positions sharply, and it is expected that the short-term high consolidation
.