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On Wednesday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose in shock, with the highest 17385 yuan / ton and the lowest 16870 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 17185 yuan / ton, up 1.
15% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum rose slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2168.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
12%
per day.
Market focus: (1) AMRO said it expects headline inflation to rise above 3.
5% in the second quarter, which may lead to a change in the wording
of the Fed's FOMC meeting in June.
(2) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the relief bill triggered concerns about a rapid rise in inflation, which is clearly in a misplaced state
.
(3) According to reports, in February 2021 (28 days), China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
017 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.
23%.
Production in March is expected to reach 3.
344 million tons
.
Spot analysis: On March 10, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17070-17110 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17090 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton
per day.
Holders ship a lot, large households are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the transaction activity is acceptable
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 143913 tons on Wednesday, a daily increase of 12,341 tons; On March 9, LME aluminum stocks were 1286825 tons, down 6,400 tons per day, down 24 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 120748 lots, an increase of 1455 lots per day, a short position of 140786 lots, a daily decrease of 1177 lots, a net short position of 20038 lots, a daily decrease of 2632 lots, more increase and short, a decrease
in net space.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2104 volatility rose
on March 10.
Optimistic progress on the $1.
9 trillion stimulus package in the United States, a strong dollar index, and higher US bond yields weakened the valuation
of risky assets.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to increase, but the pace of production has slowed down, and under the carbon peak policy, Inner Mongolia will no longer approve new projects
this year.
The downstream is still weak, and the aluminum price is high, and the recent domestic inventory has increased significantly, which has also led to a rise in downstream wait-and-see sentiment, aluminum prices are facing pullback pressure, and follow-up attention to the improvement of
demand in the peak season.
Technically, the mainstream position of the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased and reduced the short, and the daily MACD high dead cross, it is expected that the market will be adjusted
in the future.
