The main force of Shanghai aluminum oscillates to the upside There is still room for upside in the medium and long term

In terms of macro, the state often emphasizes the supply of coal power, but the relief of electrolytic aluminum production restrictions is limited
.
Overseas, the US non-farm payrolls data was less than expected, which was positive for aluminum prices
.

From a fundamental point of view, the supply-side limitation situation is difficult to solve, the current total production of electrolytic aluminum is reduced by 3 million tons, the theoretical output reduction value of 448,000 tons in Xinjiang has not yet landed, and Qinghai and Ningxia have about 850,000 tons of production capacity after November
.

In terms of demand, the peak season is expected to be disappointed, the demand on the consumer side is weak, the main consumer real estate in previous years is insufficient, and the orders for construction profiles continue to decline, but with the arrival of the State Grid delivery date, the demand for aluminum pole wire is relatively sufficient
.

In terms of inventory, SMM statistics on October 11 domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks were 864,000 tons, a slight increase of 02,000 tons from October 8, and LME stocks continued to decline to 1.
1502 million tons
.

On the cost side, alumina and electricity costs are expected to rise, and the previous high profits of electrolytic aluminum companies will continue to be compressed
.

On the whole, the supply side is limited and difficult to change, and there are expansion expectations, the demand side is weak but the elasticity is stronger than the supply, but the post-holiday storage superposition continues to accumulate, or in the short term or between
22500-23800.
Strategically, the first long position can continue to be held, and there is still upside in the medium and long term
.