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On Monday, the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level, with a maximum of 23385 yuan / ton, a minimum of 22750 yuan / ton, and a close of 23105 yuan / ton, up 0.
79% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum rushed back down, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2975 / ton, up 0.
55%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) Mysteel survey: The preliminary value of China's primary aluminum production in September 2021 was 3.
1601 million tons, an increase of 0.
67% year-on-year and a decrease of 3.
6% from August; In September 2021, China's metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity was 72.
3 million tons/year, down 1.
23% from August and up 0.
35% year-on-year; Production was 5.
993 million tons, down 2.
88% from August and up 2.
36%
year-on-year.
(2) U.
S.
non-farm payrolls rose by 194,000 in September versus 500,000 expected, the smallest increase since January this year
.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 22790-22830 yuan / ton, the average price was 22810 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 103066 tons, with a daily increase of 972 tons; LME stocks were 1150225 tonnes, down 20,575 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2111 contract held 132553 lots, a daily decrease of 6916 lots, a short position of 153326 lots, a daily increase of 867 lots, a net short position of 20773 lots, a daily increase of 9713 lots, a long reduction, a long and net short increase
.
Market research: The number of US non-farm payrolls in September was lower than the previous value and much lower than expected, but it had little impact on the dollar, and US Treasury yields generally rose, suggesting that the market's expectations for the Fed's tapering did not change
much.
Domestically, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the supply of aluminum market continues to contract, the production cost of superimposed electrolytic aluminum is raised, and the support below the aluminum price is strong
.
However, at present, domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated slightly, and the fourth batch of reserve aluminum has entered the market, and it is expected that social inventories will be in a state of accumulation for a long time, and short-term aluminum prices or high shocks will be dominant
.
