The main force of Shanghai aluminum oscillated and rose, and the upward pressure increased

Market focus: (1) White House economic director Kudlow said that the US economy has experienced a V-shaped recovery, and the US growth rate in the third and fourth quarters will reach 20%.

(2) In the first half of 2020, China's pre-baked anode exports totaled 796,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.
4%; Exports in June were 114,000 tons, down 30.
95% month-on-month and 12.
78%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On July 28, spot A00 aluminum reported 14650-14690 yuan / ton, the average price was 14670 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton
per day.
Intraday market holders are still active in shipments, although there is no shortage of spot and rich brands, but the holders are more expensive, the middlemen are active in restoration, although a large household announced the purchase plan within the day, but the quotation is not advantageous, the holder is difficult to recognize, the actual receipt volume is not much
.
Downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay, and downstream consumption weakens after entering the traditional off-season
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 97,596 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,225 tons; On July 27, LME aluminum stocks were 1,668,500 tons, an increase of 19,225 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract were 60752 lots, a daily increase of 4922 lots, short positions of 79563 lots, a daily increase of 4468 lots, a net short position of 18811 lots, a daily increase of 454 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On July 28, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose in 2009
.
The worsening pandemic in the United States and the deterioration of Sino-US relations have led to heightened concerns about the economic outlook; At the same time, the expansion of domestic electrolytic aluminum production profits will stimulate the further release of production capacity; And the import profit window remains open, stimulating the import supply of overseas sources, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform well, procurement willingness is still good, Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to fall, and the inventory in the plant continues to degrade, which has a strong
support for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, intraday market holders are still active in shipments, middlemen are active in pouring goods, and downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream bulls of the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased their positions greatly, testing the resistance at the 14400 position, and it is expected that the short-term volatility will be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long around 14280 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14180 yuan / ton
.