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On Monday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened low and went high, with the highest 14775 yuan / ton and the lowest 14585 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14755 yuan / ton, up 0.
31% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum rebounded at a low level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1780.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
71%
per day.
Market focus: (1) Eurozone preliminary manufacturing PMI for August was 51.
7, lower than the expected 52.
9 and the previous value of 51.
8; the preliminary service PMI for August was 50.
1, lower than the expected 54.
7 and the previous value of 54.
5
.
(2) Customs data showed that China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July were 391297 tons, the highest level since April 2009 (nearly 440,000 tons), an increase of 570% from July 2019 and an increase of 35.
5%
from 288783 tons in June this year.
Spot analysis: On August 24, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14680-14720 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14700 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton
daily.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 139,370 tons, a daily decrease of 1,252 tons; On August 21, LME aluminum stocks were 1,574,100 tons, a daily decrease of 4,100 tons
.
As of the week of August 21, the previous Shanghai aluminum inventory reported 246,900 tons, a weekly increase of 2,832 tons, an increase of three consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract are 70165 lots, an increase of 81 lots per day, short positions are 86773 lots, a daily increase of 1486 lots, net short positions are 16608 lots, a daily increase of 1405 lots, long and short are increased, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On August 21, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2009 opened low and went high
.
The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI data for August was less than expected, as well as the US stimulus impasse and pandemic fears, which led to a sharp rebound in the US dollar index; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually recovered, and the downstream demand performance was weak, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory entered the inventory increase cycle, and the pressure on aluminum prices gradually increased
.
However, the upstream Alunrote alumina plant reduced production, and it is expected that alumina prices will stop falling and stabilize; And the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level overall, the pressure on the supply side is still limited, and the initial closure of the import window restricts the entry of overseas sources, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position significantly, and there was resistance around 14900 above, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term high.
