The main force of Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded, and the market transaction was acceptable

Market focus: (1) CNN quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Biden's aides recently told allies in Congress that the size of the aid package is about $2 trillion
.
(2) Customs data show that the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in December 2020 was 456,100 tons, an increase of 7.
57% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.
97%.

Exports from January to December were 4.
8574 million tons, down 15.
2%
from 5.
7261 million tons in 2019.

Spot analysis: On January 14, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14700-14740 yuan / ton, the average price was 14720 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the source of circulation has decreased, demand has improved slightly, and the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is average, and the transaction is
acceptable.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 78,575 tons on Thursday, an increase of 3,521 tons per day; On January 13, LME aluminum stocks were 1,293,300 tons, a daily decrease of 4,775 tons, down for 14 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2103 contract were 75788 lots, a daily increase of 1988 lots, short positions of 96787 lots, a daily increase of 1025 lots, a net short position of 20999 lots, a daily decrease of 963 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2103 opened low and rebounded
on January 14.
The Fed may not continue to allow the market to ferment its early tightening expectations, and expectations of the upcoming Biden administration to increase spending are heating up, while the market expects the economy to continue to recover after the epidemic, and the dollar index is in turmoil
.
At present, the high production profits of aluminum enterprises will stimulate the accelerated launch of electrolytic aluminum production capacity; At the end of the year, downstream demand turned weak and natural gas supply restrictions and other reasons, resulting in some aluminum companies stopping production, domestic inventories entered the accumulation cycle, and aluminum prices performed weakly
.
However, the continuous deteriorating of aluminum inventories and the closure of the import arbitrage window will inhibit the inflow of overseas goods, and the market transaction has improved slightly after the decline in aluminum prices, which is conducive to the stabilization
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased slightly, paying attention to the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected to adjust
the short-term low.