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On Thursday, the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened low and fluctuated, the highest was 19910 yuan / ton, the lowest was 19545 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 19675 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum rushed back down, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2486 US dollars / ton, down 0.
40%
on a daily basis.
Market focus, (1) the unseasonally adjusted CPI in the United States rose 4.
2% year-on-year in April, hitting a new high since September 2008; After the quarterly adjustment, the CPI rose 0.
8% month-on-month, hitting a new high
in nearly a decade.
(2) According to my nonferrous metal network data, on May 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main market was 1.
065 million tons, down 40,000 tons from Monday and 50,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks maintained a downward trend, continuing to fall
from 1.
249 million tons in mid-March.
Spot analysis, on May 13, spot A00 aluminum reported 19800-19840 yuan / ton, the average price was 19820 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan
daily.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the source of circulating goods has increased, the holders generally raise prices, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is better, and the transaction is stable and good
.
Warehouse receipt inventory, Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 165592 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 3,040 tons; On May 12, LME stocks stood at 1,772,700 tonnes, down 8,200 tonnes
per day.
The main position, the top 20 long positions of the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 18446 lots, a daily increase of 1910 lots, a short position of 21931 lots, a daily increase of 2117 lots, a net short position of 3485 lots, a daily decrease of 18247 lots, a long and short increase, a net short decrease
.
On the supply side, Inner Mongolia is still affected by the dual control of energy consumption and production restrictions, the pace of domestic new construction and resumption of production in the second quarter and the recent reopening of the import window, it is expected that the tight supply in the future market is expected to ease
.
In terms of demand, the current market generally expects that the total demand tends to be strong, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum maintains a downward trend, and the overall order situation is comparable to the peak season of previous years, but the recent high price inhibits downstream procurement, paying attention to the performance of
the market just after demand.
Technically, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2106 is a shadow doji, and it is expected that the short-term consolidation and volatility of the market in the future, and the medium-term bullish idea remains unchanged
.
