The main force of Shanghai aluminum opened low and fluctuated, and the price upward action can be limited

Market focus: (1) China's August CPI increased by 2.
4% year-on-year, expected to increase by 2.
4%, and the previous value increased by 2.
7%.

The August PPI fell 2% y/y versus 1.
9% expected and 2.
4%
in the previous month.
(2) SMM reported that in August (31 days), China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
189 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
13%; The average daily output was 103,000 tons, an increase of 02,200 tons
from the previous month.

Spot analysis: On September 9, SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 14560-14600 yuan / ton, the average price was 14580 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton
daily.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the enthusiasm of cargo holders has not decreased, demand is still weak, and the overall trading atmosphere is flat
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 137905 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 9138 tons per day; On September 8, LME aluminum stocks were 1529425 tons, a daily decrease of 4,200 tons, a decline of 14 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contract were 74137 lots, minus 3096 lots per day, short positions were 88187 lots, daily minus 521 lots, net short positions were 14050 lots, daily increase of 2575 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On September 9, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2010 opened low.

The prospect of collapse in the Brexit negotiations, coupled with heightened tensions between China and the United States, has suppressed market risk sentiment; And the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually recovered, the supply maintained an upward trend, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, the accumulation range during the off-season is limited, and there is news that Japanese buyers agreed to raise the price of aluminum premium in the fourth quarter, showing optimism about the future market; At the same time, downstream aluminum rod inventories still continue to degrade, and have now reached a low level this year, which strengthens
the support for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, and the mainstream bulls reduced their positions even more, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 14300-14600 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.