The main force of Shanghai aluminum opened low and continued to fall, and the market wait-and-see mood was strong

Market focus: (1) Saudi Arabia announced a sharp cut in crude oil prices last weekend, launching a global crude oil price war
.
(2) The market 100% expects the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points at its March 18 meeting and another 25 basis points
at its April meeting.
(3) In February 2020 (29 days), China's electrolytic aluminum output was 2.
867 million tons, an increase of 6.
9%
year-on-year.
(3) Albras electrolytic aluminum production capacity shutdown
due to power accidents.
(4) In February (29 days), China's alumina output was 5.
403 million tons, of which 5.
173 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina and 178,000 tons of metallurgical-grade daily output, down 0.
52% month-on-month and 8.
19%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On March 9, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 12810-12850 yuan / ton, with an average price of 12830 yuan / ton, down 240 yuan / ton
per day.
In the morning, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the actual transaction is not much, because the market bearish sentiment is obvious, although the later holders actively ship, but the actual transaction is slightly light, and the buyers and sellers are generally trading
.
Downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, the wait-and-see mood is also strong, and the actual replenishment is not much
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 234746 tons, an increase of 8629 tons per day; On March 6, LME aluminum stocks were 1030750 tons, a daily decrease of 10,025 tons, a decline of 18 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended March 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory was 479472 tons, a weekly increase of 40,385 tons, an increase of 8 consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2005 contract were 87324 lots, an increase of 1452 lots per day, 102952 short positions were held daily, a daily increase of 2926 lots, a net short position of 15628 lots, a daily increase of 1474 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increased
.

The main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2005 opened low and continued to fall
.
The global pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, the global trade economy has been hit hard, and Saudi Arabia has sharply lowered crude oil prices, which has aggravated market uncertainty and market risk aversion; At the same time, domestic electrolytic aluminum production in February increased year-on-year, and the completed production capacity expanded to 40.
99 million tons at the end of February, while downstream demand performance was weak, and Shanghai aluminum inventories continued to accumulate to reach a new high since May last year, putting greater pressure on aluminum prices
.
However, the Fed's expectation of further interest rate cuts is strong, the US dollar index is under pressure and declines, and the world is expected to enter monetary easing; Affected by traffic control and the delay in the start of mines, the domestic domestic bauxite inventory decreased by 36.
31% month-on-month, and the shortage of domestic raw material supply led to a reduction in alumina production, and the recent recovery of alumina prices partially supported
aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the morning market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the actual transaction is not much, because the market bearish sentiment is obvious, although the later holders actively ship, but the actual transaction is slightly light, the downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay, the wait-and-see mood is also strong, the actual replenishment is not much
.
Technically, the main 2005 contract daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai aluminum is dead, and the mainstream short position increase is large, and it is expected to continue to fall
under pressure in the short term.