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Internal and external trends: LME aluminum continued to decline on Thursday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum reported 1797 US dollars / ton, down 0.
19%
on a daily basis.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened low and continued to fall, with the highest 14070 yuan / ton and the lowest 13985 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 13990 yuan / ton, down 0.
64% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 40444 lots, an increase of 7544 lots per day; The position was 103,000 lots, a daily decrease of 505 lots
.
The basis was expanded to 480 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum in 2002-2003 widened to 90 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) US ADP employment increased by 202,000 in December, beating expectations of 160,000 and the previous value of 124,000
.
(2) Trump said the United States is willing to negotiate
with Iran.
(3) SMM expects the output of metallurgical-grade alumina in January to be 5.
578 million tons, and the average daily output of metallurgical grade will decline to 180,000 tons
.
(4) SMM expects the total output of electrolytic aluminum in the country in January to be 3.
06 million tons, the second consecutive month of positive growth year-on-year, with a growth rate of 3.
07%.
Spot analysis, on January 9, spot A00 aluminum reported 14450-14490 yuan / ton, the average price was 14470 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
Although the two sides traded actively, the transaction was slightly deadlocked, and the large market households did not announce the procurement plan
during the day.
Downstream on-demand goods are mainly taken, because most downstream manufacturers have entered a holiday state, and the enthusiasm for procurement is obviously less than
in the early stage.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 42,839 tons on Thursday, an increase of 849 tons per day; On January 8, LME aluminum stocks were 1,439,300 tons, a daily decrease of 12,275 tons, and a 12-day
decline.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 69586 lots, minus 1771 lots, short positions were 76687 lots, a daily increase of 1550 lots, net short positions were 7101 lots, a daily increase of 3321 lots, more short positions, net space increased
.
During the day, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened low in 2003 and continued to fall
.
The United States in December small non-farm data performance is strong, and China and the United States will sign the first phase of the agreement, market risk sentiment rebounded, while domestic alumina production continued to decline, alumina prices stabilized strongly, forming support for aluminum prices, but crude oil prices fell, coal prices followed the decline, while domestic electrolytic aluminum production profits are high, stimulating manufacturers to accelerate the resumption of production, superimposed on the end of the year downstream demand weakened, the recent Shanghai aluminum inventory has risen slightly, the pressure on aluminum prices is greater
。 In terms of spot, intraday holders are actively shipped, middlemen are acceptable, although the two sides are actively trading, but the transaction is slightly deadlocked, not as good as the previous day, the large market within the day did not announce the procurement plan, downstream on-demand goods
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily MACD green column increment of Shanghai aluminum, mainstream bulls reduce their positions, and short-term volatility is expected to be weak
.
