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On Thursday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high, with the highest 17,300 yuan / ton and the lowest 17,030 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 17,060 yuan / ton, down 0.
09% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fell slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum reported 2238.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
42%
on the day.
Market Focus: (1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that although the Fed forecasts very strong economic growth this year, the forecast of the extent of the decline in the unemployment rate is relatively modest, and behind it is actually "very desirable" progress
in the labor market.
(2) The National Development and Reform Commission said that China's policy space is sufficient, and commodities do not have a long-term rising foundation
.
Spot analysis: On March 25, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17180-17220 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17200 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 120 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the premium was slightly firm, the market trading turned weak, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was acceptable, and the transaction performance was not as good as the previous day
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 158074 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1151 tons, a decline of 7 consecutive days; On March 24, LME aluminum stocks were 1946550 tons, down 9,775 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2105 contract 140414 lots, a daily decrease of 793 lots, a short position of 148757 lots, a daily decrease of 35 lots, a net short position of 8343 lots, a daily increase of 758 lots, long and short decreases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: There is news that the State Reserve plans to collect aluminum ingots before selling, and the amount involved is rumored to be about 500,000-800,000 tons, causing concerns about increased supply; At present, the speed of domestic production capacity launch is slow, and the dual control policy of energy consumption in Baotou in Inner Mongolia also affects
output.
And the recent aluminum ingot inventory has declined slightly, downstream demand has shown signs of recovery, demand prospects are optimistic, aluminum prices have stabilized
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, focusing on the support of the 16900 position, and it is expected that the market will adjust the operation in the
future.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate lightly around 16900-17200 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.
