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On Monday, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai aluminum came under pressure, with a maximum of 19,530 yuan / ton, a minimum of 19,240 yuan / ton, and a close of 19,275 yuan / ton, down 1.
13% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2488 / ton, down 0.
02%
from the previous session.
Market focus: (1) U.
S.
retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.
6% month-on-month in June, as demand for goods remained strong, boosting expectations
of accelerated economic growth in the second quarter.
The May figure was revised downward to a 1.
7%
decline.
Excluding automobiles, retail sales rose 1.
3 percent
in June.
(2) The National Development and Reform Commission mentioned aluminum throwing again: continue to carry out the release of copper, aluminum and zinc reserves in batches, and severely crack down on behaviors such as price gouging and hoarding
.
(3) SMM data statistics, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 829,000 tons, a slight decrease of 03,000 tons
from the previous Thursday.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19310-19350 yuan / ton, the average price was 19330 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan
per day.
Holders generally sell at high prices, receivers purchase at low prices, downstream demand is not good, and the overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 86,543 tons, with a daily increase of 623 tons; LME stocks were 1,457,800 tonnes, down 7,975 tonnes
per day.
Main position: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2108 contract held 138305 lots, a daily increase of 1412 lots, a short position of 139239 lots, a daily increase of 1867 lots, a net short position of 934 lots, a net long turn net short
.
The bulls are increased, and the net long turns into net short
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2018 contract volatility
downward.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission threw a "reassuring pill": commodities gradually returned to a reasonable range, and said that it would continue to carry out copper, aluminum and zinc reserves in batches, severely crack down on price gouging, hoarding and other behaviors, and aluminum prices came under pressure to pull back
.
However, Yunnan, Henan and other places have once again reported power rationing policies, the degree of disruption on the supply side has increased, and social inventories are still in the cycle of inventory reduction, which supports aluminum prices
.
