The main force of Shanghai aluminum is under pressure to fall, and it is expected that the short-term adjustment will continue

Market focus: (1) The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in November was 245,000, 469,000 expected, 610,000 in the previous month, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.
7%, 6.
8% expected, and 6.
9%
in the previous month.
(2) According to Mysteel data, as of December 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main markets was 615,000 tons, a weekly increase of 8,000 tons
.
(3) As of December 7, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods in China's main market was 75,000 tons, unchanged
from last week.

Spot analysis: On December 7, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16480-16520 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16500 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is still sufficient, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and there is a demand
for replenishment downstream.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 84,245 tons, a daily decrease of 805 tons, a continuous decline of 15 days; On December 4, LME aluminum stocks were 1353350 tons, a daily decrease of 5,075 tons, down 13 consecutive days
.
As of the week of December 4, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 214332 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,041 tons, a decline of three consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract are 76246 lots, daily minus 5253 lots, short positions are 95212 lots, daily minus 9889 lots, net short positions are 18966 lots, daily minus 4636 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On December 7, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2101 fell
under pressure.
The US non-farm payrolls data for November was significantly lower than expected, expectations of a new stimulus package heated up, and the dollar index fell; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, and the production capacity of aluminum plants was less than expected, and the domestic spot and Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts showed a downward trend, which still supported
aluminum prices.
However, the production of electrolytic aluminum is highly profitable, which stimulates the production capacity in the medium and long term; Coupled with the recent expansion of import arbitrage, the inflow of overseas goods is expected to increase, and the rise in aluminum prices inhibits downstream demand, spot inventories have rebounded, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices has weakened
.
Technically, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position, paying attention to the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected to continue to adjust
in the short term.