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On Tuesday, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai aluminum came under pressure to the downside, with the highest 12,315 yuan / ton and the lowest 12,005 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 12,105 yuan / ton, down 1.
90% from the previous trading day's closing price; As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun Aluminum was reported at $1490.
5 / ton, down 0.
96%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) Affected by the serious oversupply of the US oil market, the upcoming expiration of the contract and the decision of Texas to cut production, New York oil prices plummeted
on the 20th.
(2) The cumulative number of new coronary pneumonia confirmed in the world has exceeded 2.
48 million, and WHO warns that the worst moment is coming
.
(3) China's alumina production in March was 5.
88 million tons, down 3.
6%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On April 21, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 12240-12280 yuan / ton, with an average price of 12260 yuan / ton, down 240 yuan / ton
daily.
The market trading is more active, the two sides of the receiver are positive, the later market transaction heat falls, the holder's wait-and-see attitude gradually rises, the downstream normal purchase of goods within the day, and did not stock up on a large number of goods
due to the sharp decline in aluminum prices.
The overall transaction in East China was acceptable, slightly worse
than the previous day.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 277251 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 9,093 tons, a continuous decline of 5 days; On April 20, LME aluminum stocks were 1300950 tons, an increase of 41,800 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract were 82249 lots, a daily increase of 707 lots, short positions of 95609 lots, a daily decrease of 2467 lots, a net short position of 13360 lots, a daily decrease of 3174 lots, more short positions, a decrease
in net space.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production due to losses in the early stage, coupled with the recovery of downstream processing plant production, and Shanghai aluminum inventories have continued to deteriorate recently; At present, due to the market's expectation that the country will lower the tax increase in May, resulting in a decrease in shipment willingness, tight supply has boosted aluminum prices
.
However, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy continues, overseas orders have declined significantly, and downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic; In addition, the price of alumina fell to a low level, and the willingness of aluminum plants to purchase raw materials increased, which also reduced the production reduction expectations of aluminum plants, and the space above aluminum prices was limited
.
In terms of spot, the market trading is more active, the two sides of the receiver are positive, the market transaction heat in the later period has fallen, the wait-and-see attitude of the holders is gradually rising, and the downstream is buying goods normally
.
Technically, the main 2006 contract daily MACD red column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, mainstream positions increase and decrease, is expected to short-term shock
downward.
