The main force of Shanghai aluminum is to rebound from the low, mainly short-term or high-level shocks

Market focus: (1) The IMF released a financial stability report warning that global stock prices and home values are at risk
of a sharp decline as the Federal Reserve and other central banks withdraw the support they provided during the pandemic.
The report said that the "local market boom and rising financing leverage" caused by ultra-loose monetary policy could be exited in a disorderly manner, which could put the economic recovery at risk
as credit tightens.
(2) China's exports of unwrought aluminum and products in September 2021 were 491,985 tons, the highest monthly level
since March 2020.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 23280-23320 yuan / ton, the average price was 23300 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan
from the previous trading day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 105684 tons, an increase of 875 tons per day; LME stocks were 1,128,500 tonnes, down 9,175 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai's main 2111 contract held 122504 lots, minus 4492 lots per day, 137094 short positions per day, 11014 lots per day, 14590 net short positions, 4386 daily losses, long and short and net short were reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Fed officials spoke out in support of the November debt reduction, coupled with the recent surge in energy prices, market risk aversion has heated up, the dollar index has performed upward, but the impact on aluminum prices is relatively small, pay attention to the US CPI data
released within the day.
Domestically, the dual control of energy consumption continues to make efforts, Qinghai and Gansu shut down part of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the supply of aluminum market continues to contract, and the recent surge in thermal coal has raised the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, superimposed on the external pan aluminum performance is relatively strong, the domestic export window is open, overseas demand performance is good, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, at present, domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated slightly, and the fourth batch of reserve aluminum has flowed into the market, and there is pressure above aluminum prices, and short-term aluminum prices or high shocks are dominant
.