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Yesterday's Shanghai aluminum main force is still rising strongly, after the morning opening bulls confidence is still sufficient, continue to maintain a high running trend, 2202 contract opened at 21420 yuan / ton in the morning, the lowest price of 21390 yuan / ton, the highest price of 21660 yuan / ton, the final close at 21530 yuan / ton, up 375 yuan / ton from the previous day, up 1.
77%.
The recent rise in black commodities has driven aluminum prices to a certain extent
.
The overseas European energy crisis continues to ferment, and due to the great uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply, production reduction may expand.
In terms of the market, East China's spot trading volume was concentrated around 30 yuan / ton in the month, driven by the pre-holiday stocking of downstream processing enterprises, and the spot maintained premium operation
.
Compared with the Central Plains (Gongyi) region, where the East China market is weak, the current market discount for the month has expanded to around 190 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction discount for East China is mainly
220 yuan / ton.
Domestic fundamentals, after the correction of the dual-control atmosphere, various places have begun to resume production, Yunnan, Shanxi and other provinces electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased slightly, and domestic operating capacity continued to rise
.
In terms of cost and profit, according to the suspension of production in Shandong or will cause the overall production of alumina to decline in February, it will form a significant support for the price of alumina, and it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of corporate profits caused by the subsequent rise in alumina prices
.
On the demand side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises near the Spring Festival have successively stopped work and holiday, and demand has weakened
.
In terms of stocks, as of January 17, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 722,000 tons, a change of -02,000 tons
from the previous week.
LME aluminium inventories on Jan.
19 were -5,375 tonnes from the previous session to 878,750 tonnes
.
The domestic aluminum ingot social library continues to go to storage, as the downstream is successively on holiday, it is necessary to pay close attention to the inventory inflection point, and it is expected that there will be an inventory inflection point
in the near future.
In terms of price, the margin of supply and demand tends to be loose or makes it difficult for aluminum prices to have greater upward momentum, but overseas production cuts and tightening supply of raw materials still support aluminum prices below, and it is necessary to be wary of the pullback
in aluminum prices caused by safe-haven demand triggering long exits.
