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On Thursday, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai aluminum was running strongly, with a maximum of 19,510 yuan / ton, a minimum of 19,195 yuan / ton, and a close of 19,395 yuan / ton, up 0.
7% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum trend is volatile, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum is at 2528 US dollars / ton, up 0.
42%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) China's primary aluminum production in June was 3.
29 million tons, down from 3.
32 million tons in May, but up 9.
3%
year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
(2) My nonferrous metal data shows that the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main markets on the 15th was 82.
4, an increase of 0.
2
from July 12.
(10,000 tons); On the 15th, the total inventory of 6063 aluminum rods in China's main market was 13.
25, down 0.
3 (10,000 tons)
from July 12.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19260-19300 yuan / ton, the average price was 19280 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan
per day.
Holders actively ship goods at high prices, and the receiving party purchases at a low price, the demand is general, and the overall transaction is flat
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 85,895 tons, with a daily increase of 5,999 tons; LME stocks were 1465775 tonnes, down 7,025 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2108 contract held 135233 lots, down 1321 lots per day, 130746 short positions, 291 lots per day, 4487 net long positions, 1450 lots
per day.
Long increases, short and net long decrease
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2018 contract high
volatility.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dispelled expectations that the Fed would soon cut back on asset purchases and reiterated that any spike in inflation could moderate, with the dollar index posting its biggest drop since June 21 on Wednesday
.
Fundamentally, China's primary aluminum production fell for the second consecutive month in June, mainly due to the decline in production due to Yunnan's restrictions on electricity consumption in the aluminum smelting industry
.
In addition, entering the off-season, the social inventory of aluminum ingots shows signs of accumulation, and it is expected to officially move towards accumulation in the second half of the year
.
And the downstream aluminum rod performance destocking
.
At the same time, Yunnan Province has cut power again due to insufficient power supply, and Henan electrolytic aluminum plant will stagger peak production to form a strong support
for the futures price.