The main force of Shanghai aluminum has fallen sharply, and the upward momentum has weakened

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
congressmen have reached an agreement on a $900 billion new crown relief bill to provide the government with long-term new crown relief
.
It is also the second-largest stimulus deal in U.
S.
history, behind the $2.
2 trillion
in March.
(2) British Prime Minister Johnson and scientists confirmed that a new variant of the new coronavirus found in the UK is 70%
more contagious than the ordinary new coronavirus.
(3) According to Mysteel data, in the week of December 13-20, the export volume of electrolytic aluminum in China's main regions was about 124,000 tons, an increase of 09,000 tons over the previous period's data, and the export volume in the same period last year was 147,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On December 21, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16510-16550 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16530 yuan / ton, down 430 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders actively shipped, the willingness to purchase downstream increased, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was general, and the overall transaction was
acceptable.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 67,984 tons, a daily decrease of 2,682 tons, a 25-day decline; On December 18, LME aluminum stocks were 1367025 tons, a daily decrease of 4,275 tons
.
As of the week of December 18, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 212745 tons, a weekly decrease of 1875 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract were 55583 lots, minus 8268 lots per day, short positions were 72211 lots, daily minus 10678 lots, net short positions were 16628 lots, daily minus 2410 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2101 fell
sharply on December 21.
US lawmakers are close to reaching an agreement on a relief package against the epidemic, the Federal Reserve maintains near-zero interest rates and the current size of bond purchases, and the easing policy environment and outlook weigh on the US dollar index, although the worsening of the epidemic in the UK has added new concerns
to the economic outlook.
Serious pollution weather in Henan and other places has recently caused local aluminum companies to face production cuts and production restrictions, putting pressure on downstream demand prospects; And the lack of overseas demand and the expansion of import arbitrage will stimulate the inflow of overseas goods, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

However, at present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, coupled with the good performance of downstream demand, Shanghai aluminum inventory maintains a low level and a small destocking state, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum has fallen sharply, and the mainstream short position reduction is large, and it is expected to fluctuate
in the short term.