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On Wednesday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated downward, with a maximum of 20,450 yuan / ton, a minimum of 20,000 yuan / ton, and a close of 20,190 yuan / ton, down 0.
79% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum volatility trend, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2584 US dollars / ton, up 0.
31%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
Department of Commerce announced on Tuesday that overall retail sales fell 1.
1% last month, after the previous month's data was revised upwards to an increase of 0.
7%.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated a median decline of 0.
3 percent
.
Retail sales excluding automobiles decreased by 0.
4 percent
.
(2) According to the survey of Mysteel aluminum team, affected by factors such as the adjustment of railway transportation policies and epidemic prevention and control in Xinjiang, the wagons and containers transported out of Xinjiang are relatively insufficient, and the shipment of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is slightly unsmooth
.
Up to now, the backlog of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods on some platforms in Xinjiang has reached 1,600 sets, with a total of 86,000 tons, an increase of about
70,000 tons compared with the daily accumulation.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 20320-20360 yuan / ton, the average price was 20340 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan
daily.
Holders maintain high prices and sell at high prices, receivers actively purchase at low prices, the trading atmosphere is better, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the overall transaction activity is better
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 92,014 tons, a daily decrease of 49 tons; LME stocks were 1315125 tonnes, down 7,025 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions in the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 121037 lots, minus 22316 lots per day, 120024 short positions, minus 20735 lots per day, net long positions 1013 lots, daily minus 3710 lots
.
Both long and short and net long are reduced
.
Market research: U.
S.
retail sales unexpectedly contracted by 1.
1% in July released on Tuesday, and core retail sales fell 0.
4% from the previous month, and the data did not hit the dollar, but launched a risk-off mode to continue to dominate trading activity
.
Markets are awaiting the release of the latest minutes of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday, especially its view
on tapering bond purchases.
The recent press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission released a series of important signals affecting the market, including keywords such as "dual control", "carbon reduction", "power limiting" and "two highs", which have a certain boost
to aluminum prices.
In addition, the current aluminum market has a small accumulation of inventory, the main reason for the lack of warehouse is concentrated arrival, it is expected that the accumulation is only temporary, the impact is relatively limited
.
The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season is coming, the demand for replenishment of processing enterprises has increased, and under the change of supply and demand pattern, short-term aluminum prices may run
strongly.