The main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuates at a low level, and downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay

Market focus: (1) The number of ADP payrolls in the United States increased by 183,000 in February, better than expected an increase of 170,000, and the previous value was revised down sharply from an increase of 291,000 to an increase of 209,000
.
(2) The IMF expects global economic growth in 2020 to be lower than 2.
9% in 2019, after the IMF forecast 3.
3%
in January for 2020.
(3) In the supply and demand negotiations held in Japan, overseas aluminum suppliers quoted $98-105 per ton of primary aluminum sent to Japan in the second quarter of this year, up 18%-27%
from the level of the first quarter of this year.

Spot analysis: On March 5, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13040-13080 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13060 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
per day.
With the rise in aluminum prices, the shippers' shipments converged, the quotation increased, and the enthusiasm of middlemen receiving goods was not as good as in the morning, and the transaction between the two sides began to show light
.
Downstream intraday on-demand goods are mainly carried out, and the procurement is flat
.
The overall intraday transaction in East China is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 220257 tons on Thursday, unchanged from the previous day; On March 4, LME aluminum stocks were 1050750 tons, down 10,625 tons per day, down 16 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2005 contract were 84649 lots, a daily increase of 1287 lots, short positions of 96288 lots, a daily increase of 1061 lots, a net short position of 11639 lots, a daily decrease of 226 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.

The main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2005 fluctuated
at a low level during the day.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, and the market is worried that the impact of the epidemic on the global economy will further intensify; The IMF has cut the global economic growth rate this year again, saying that the spread of the epidemic has dashed hopes for stronger economic growth this year; At the same time, the resumption of work of downstream processing enterprises is slow, and the recent continuous accumulation of Shanghai aluminum inventory, coupled with the release of domestic aluminum smelting capacity, the inventory pressure will further increase, and the aluminum price lacks upward momentum
.
However, expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in March have heated up, and expectations of global monetary easing have strengthened; At the same time, the epidemic situation in China has improved, and as transportation gradually recovers, downstream procurement will continue to increase, coupled with the Chinese government's plan to expand infrastructure investment, which is conducive to the recovery of demand, which will partially support
aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the morning carrier shipments are acceptable, traders trading is still active, with the rise of aluminum prices, the holders of shipments converge, the middlemen to receive goods enthusiasm is not as good as in the morning, downstream intraday on-demand goods, procurement flat
.
Technically, the main 2005 contract of Shanghai aluminum daily KDJ dead cross signs, it is expected that the short-term shock is weak
.