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On Tuesday, the main 2110 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level, with a maximum of 21,500 yuan / ton, a minimum of 21,195 yuan / ton, and a close of 21,385 yuan / ton, up 1.
16% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum ran high, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum reported 2718 US dollars / ton, up 2.
41%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) Mysteel News: According to Mysteel's overseas channels, data from the International Aluminium Association showed that global alumina production reached 12.
234 million tons in July 2021, an increase of 3.
18% month-on-month and 7.
95%
year-on-year.
In July 2021, global daily production of alumina was 394,600 tons, down 0.
5% month-on-month and up 7.
93%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 21220-21260 yuan / ton, the average price was 21240 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 210 yuan
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal Network reported that the cargo holder has lowered the shipment, the receiver purchases at a low price, the trading performance is average, and the overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 75192 tons, a daily decrease of 3458 tons; LME stocks were 1334675 tonnes, down 3,450 tonnes
per day.
Main position: the top 20 longs in the main 2110 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 207260 lots, minus 14341 lots per day, 210196 short positions, 6166 lots per day, net short positions 2936 lots, net long turn net short, long and short increase
.
Market research and judgment: Fed Chairman Powell made dovish remarks at the annual meeting of the global central bank, the dollar index came under pressure and pulled back, macro sentiment picked up, and the market is still digesting
.
Domestically, the dual control of energy consumption in production areas and environmental protection inspectors continued to ferment, and Ningxia, Xinjiang and Guangxi once again spoke out, stimulating market bulls
.
The scale of subsequent electrolytic aluminum production reduction is likely to be further expanded, and supply disturbances are expected to continue to form strong futures price support
.
In addition, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues to degrade, coupled with the current market for the "gold nine silver ten" consumption season has certain expectations, under the change of supply and demand pattern, the future market aluminum prices are still optimistic
.
However, affected by yesterday's video meeting held by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association to prevent malicious speculation of aluminum prices and irrational surge news, bulls are slightly cautious
.
In the short term, aluminum prices may be strongly volatile
.
