The main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated widely, and the overall transaction of the market was not happy

Market focus: (1) New China's manufacturing PMI recorded 50.
6 in October, up 0.
6 percentage points from September, returning to the expansion range
.
The production index fell from September and was in contraction territory for three consecutive months
.
(2) The ISM manufacturing PMI in October fell to 60.
8 vs 60.
5 expected vs.
61.
1 prior; the employment index was 52 vs 50.
2 prior; and the new orders index was 59.
8 vs 66.
7
prior.
The final Markit manufacturing PMI for October was 58.
4 vs 59.
2 expected and 59.
2
preliminary reading.
(3) Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission: It is required to strictly prohibit the implementation of preferential electricity price policies for the electrolytic aluminum industry, strictly implement the tiered electricity price grading and markup policy, and the current implementation of other differentiated electricity price policies for the electrolytic aluminum industry that are inconsistent with national policies will be stopped accordingly
.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 20090-20130 yuan / ton, the average price was 20110 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The holder sells the goods at a high price, the receiver waits and sees the price reduction, the transaction is general, and the overall transaction is not happy
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 137968 tons, daily increase of 1427 tons; LME aluminium stocks were 1035525 tonnes, down 7,275 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2112 contract held 142617 lots, with a daily increase of 3491 lots, short positions 136906 lots, a daily decrease of 5271 lots, a net long position of 5711 lots, a net short turn net long, a long increase, and a short decrease
.

Market judgment: This week will usher in the Fed, Bank of England and RBA interest rate meeting, the market expects the Fed decision-making meeting is expected to announce the start of tapering bond purchases, while expectations that the Fed will start raising interest rates in the middle of next year
.
Fundamentals, the cost of electricity for aluminum enterprises is still at a high level, superimposed alumina prices continue to rise, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum is still supported
.
The previous power and production restriction policy is still being implemented, and the subsequent supply side is still expected to reduce production; The demand side has been boosted by the deep downward revision of aluminum prices, and the downstream operating rate has recently rebounded
.
However, the overall performance of spot trading is average, and downstream companies are more likely to maintain a wait-and-see trend
.
Recently, the market has been affected by coal prices, and the market sentiment has been slightly pessimistic, and it continues to pay attention to the trend
of coal prices.