The main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly, and the market consumption performance was flat

Market Focus: (1) The U.
S.
Treasury Department announced that China is no longer classified as a currency manipulator
.
(2) In December, the arrival volume of bauxite of Oriental Company reached 1.
03 million tons, and the completion of ships was 806,000 tons, an increase of 644% year-on-year and 7%
month-on-month.
(3) The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in December was 478,000 tons; the annual export volume was 5.
726 million tons, down 1.
2%
from 5.
795 million tons in 2018.

Spot analysis: On January 14, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14280-143200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
daily.
SMM reported that the morning carrier shipments are active, the middleman receives goods more generally, the spot discount has expanded, with a large household announcing the purchase plan, the price is more ideal, some traders tend to ship to it, so the later market shipments are reduced and the middleman receiver is significantly increased, and the trading activity of the two sides has increased
.
The downstream performance was flat during the day, the enthusiasm for receiving goods was not high, and most of them entered the holiday state
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 62,268 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 13,128 tons; On January 14, LME aluminum stocks were 1396550 tons, down 14,125 tons per day, down 15 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 75758 lots, an increase of 625 lots per day, short positions were 83992 lots, a daily increase of 1578 lots, a net short position of 8234 lots, a daily increase of 953 lots, long and short positions, and net short increased
.

Market research and judgment: On January 14, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2003 fell slightly
.
China and the United States are about to sign the first phase of the trade agreement, and the United States abandons China as a currency manipulator, market optimism heats up, while domestic alumina production continues to decline, port inventories have fallen, prices have stabilized, supporting aluminum prices, but as domestic electrolytic aluminum manufacturers accelerate the resumption of production, coupled with the end of the year downstream demand weakened, the recent domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly, and downstream aluminum exports have declined year-on-year, aluminum prices are weak
。 In terms of spot, the morning carrier shipments are active, the middleman receives goods more generally, with a large household announcing the purchase plan, the price is more ideal, the downstream performance is flat, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, most of them enter the holiday state
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum daily MACD green column increment, mainstream bulls increased their positions large, and short-term volatility is expected to be weak
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2003 contract can be short around 14,000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14,050 yuan / ton
.