The main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and rose, and the market transaction was not prosperous

Market focus: (1) Fed Vice Chairman Clarida: The economy can recover this year; The U.
S.
economy is in a "very turbulent period.
"
(2) China's April economic data was released, the year-on-year growth rate of the main indicators fell significantly, and the recovery of consumption was less than expected
.
(3) The Chinese Union and the United States announced the start of discussions on the issue of overcapacity of steel and aluminum, and reached a temporary tariff truce on the metal trade dispute, striving to find a solution
to the dispute by the end of the year.
(4) China's General Administration of Customs released data on Tuesday showing that China's aluminum imports in April increased by 36.
1%
from the previous month.
China's imports of primary aluminum, unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 281139 tons in April, up from 206556 tons in March and jumping 165.
2% from the same period last year.
China's bauxite imports in April fell 12.
3% year-on-year to 8.
74 million mt; Bauxite imports in April were down 13.
6%
from 10.
11 million tonnes in March.

Spot analysis: On May 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 19840-19880 yuan / ton, with an average price of 19860 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 160 yuan
.
The source of circulating goods has gradually tightened, holders have actively raised prices, middlemen have bargained for receiving goods, and transactions have not been happy
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 178314 tons on Tuesday, unchanged from the previous trading day; On May 17, LME stocks stood at 1768375 tonnes, up 5,850 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 longs in the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 96252 lots, minus 13584 lots per day, short positions 109193 lots, minus 10405 lots per day, net short positions 12941 lots, daily increase of 3368 lots, long and short reduction, net short increase
.

Market Analysis: Recent positive US economic data and global supply-demand mismatch have boosted commodity prices, and high inflation risks and the Fed's dovish expectations have weighed
on the dollar.
In addition, the narrowing of marginal improvement in the domestic economy is expected to provide support
for the central bank to delay the tightening of monetary policy.
On the supply side, the high profits of the industry have accelerated the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, but under the background of carbon neutrality and strict control of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, it is expected that the growth space will be limited; The implementation of peak shifting electricity consumption in Yunnan has not really affected the production capacity at present, and the superimposed power load decline will not all be concentrated in the production process, and the actual impact is expected to be relatively limited
.
In terms of demand, global aluminum demand has rebounded synchronously, coupled with domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rod social inventories are still in a state of decomposition, and the peak season just needs to continue to support aluminum prices
.