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On Tuesday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and fell, with the highest 17155 yuan / ton and the lowest 16745 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 16890 yuan / ton, down 0.
76% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum shock adjustment, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2117.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
17%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
manufacturing index rose to 60.
8 in February from 58.
7 in January, higher than economists' median estimate of 58.
9, the fastest growth level in three years, while the material cost indicator posted the largest increase since 2008
.
(2) The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued a draft for comments to control the scale of production capacity in high-energy-consuming industries, and will no longer approve new capacity projects
such as electrolytic aluminum from this year.
Spot analysis: On March 2, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16880-16920 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton
per day.
According to the Yangtze River Nonferrous Report, the holders of goods are selling their goods, traders are waiting and seeing, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the transaction activity is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 110,910 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 1,995 tons; On March 1, LME aluminum stocks were 1,316,800 tons, a daily decrease of 9,075 tons, and a decline of 18 consecutive days
.
Main position: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 112857 lots, a daily decrease of 4185 lots, a short position of 139884 lots, a daily decrease of 4534 lots, a net short position of 27027 lots, a daily reduction of 349 lots, both long and short reduction, net space reduction
.
Market research and judgment: On March 2, Shanghai aluminum 2104 fluctuated and fell
.
The US $1.
9 trillion stimulus package ushered in progress, but the recent economic recovery in the United States and rising inflation expectations raised concerns about the Fed's early interest rate hike, and market risk sentiment was frustrated, which boosted the sharp recovery of the dollar index
.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to increase, but the pace of production has slowed down, new projects are mainly concentrated in Yunnan Province, and Inner Mongolia will no longer approve new projects
this year.
Downstream processing enterprises have not fully resumed work, and domestic aluminum inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, but the overall is still at a low level, and the future market demand is expected to be good, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum 2104 contract contraction and position reduction continued to decline, focusing on the support of the 16600 position, and it is expected that the market will be adjusted
in the future.
