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On Tuesday, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, with the highest 16410 yuan / ton and the lowest 16165 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 16230 yuan / ton, down 0.
52% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fell under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum reported 2037.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
49%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The mayor of New York City, USA, said that there is a possibility
of a complete lockdown in New York City.
Britain will impose the strictest restrictions on London and parts of southeast England from Wednesday
.
(2) According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum output in October was 3.
18 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.
7%, and the output from January to November was 33.
82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
0%.
Spot analysis: On December 15, spot A00 aluminum reported 16520-16560 yuan / ton, the average price was 16540 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, downstream demand is weak, and the transaction performance is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 79,420 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,127 tons, a continuous decline of 21 days; On December 14, LME aluminum stocks were 1357650 tons, an increase of 28,050 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 68548 lots, minus 347 lots per day, short positions are 83200 lots, daily minus 3107 lots, net short positions are 14652 lots, daily minus 2760 lots, long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2101 fell
slightly on December 15.
The dollar index remained low amid heightened expectations of a US stimulus package and the start of a US vaccination campaign, although risk aversion was heightened by a possible full-blown lockdown in New York
.
Serious pollution weather in Henan and other places has recently caused local aluminum companies to face production cuts and production restrictions, putting pressure on downstream demand prospects; Coupled with the recent expansion of import arbitrage, the inflow of overseas goods is expected to increase, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.
However, at present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, coupled with the downstream demand performance is acceptable, Shanghai aluminum inventory maintains a low level of small destocking, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position, focusing on the support of the 16000 position, and it is expected to fluctuate
in a wide short-term range.
