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On Monday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, with a maximum of 19,680 yuan / ton, a minimum of 19,190 yuan / ton, and a close of 19,200 yuan, down 1.
31% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum fell in volatility, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum reported $2660 / ton, down 1.
52%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) As of November 15, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
019 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday (November 11), and 617,000 tons
in the same period last year.
(2) According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2021, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
13 million tons, down 1.
8% year-on-year; From January to October, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 32.
37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
5%.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19170-19210 yuan / ton, the average price was 19190 yuan / ton, down 240 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 195391 tons, daily increase of 23977 tons; LME aluminum stocks were 968,450 tons, a daily decrease of 6,250 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 92802 lots, -11533 lots, short positions 95736 lots, -9885 lots, net short positions 2934 lots, +1308 lots, long and short reduction, net short increase
.
Market research and judgment: under the influence of the dual control policy, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be limited, and the daily output of primary aluminum has declined for six consecutive months, but in October, primary aluminum production has increased month-on-month, and monthly output has ended a five-year decline, and some power relief areas have a certain probability of resuming production, but it is difficult to release
on a large scale in the short term.
At the same time, the latest data show that electrolytic aluminum has accumulated again, and coal continues to fall, the atmosphere of industrial products is pessimistic again, superimposed on the performance of aluminum inventories on the two major exchanges, the weekly inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to increase to a five-month high, making aluminum prices under pressure, short-term aluminum prices or wide volatility
.
Technically, the daily level remains weak, focusing on the 19000 first-line support
.
