The main force of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, and the market transaction was still weak

Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000 jobs in December, the first decline in eight months, and expected an increase of 71,000
.
The unemployment rate came in at 6.
7% in December vs 6.
8% expected vs 6.
7%
previously.
(2) According to Mysteel data, as of January 11, China's main market discipline inventory was 683,000 tons, a weekly increase of 39,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On January 11, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15380-15420 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15400 yuan / ton, down 310 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is sufficient, the shipment of cargo holders is reduced, the downstream wait-and-see is the mainstay, and the transaction is still weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 64,580 tons, unchanged; On January 8, LME aluminum stocks were 1,309,100 tons, a daily decrease of 4,000 tons, and a continuous decline of 11 days
.
As of the week of January 8, the previous Shanghai aluminum inventory was reported 235348 tons, an increase of 11,113 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2103 contract were 70774 lots, a daily increase of 6795 lots, short positions of 92665 lots, a daily increase of 3412 lots, a net short position of 21891 lots, a daily decrease of 3383 lots, both long and short increases, and net space decreases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2103 fell
sharply on January 11.
The US non-farm payrolls data performed poorly, and the pressure of winter epidemic prevention and control increased, raising market concerns about the worsening epidemic, the US dollar index was boosted by risk aversion, and the market focused on the expectation of
additional stimulus plans in the United States.
At present, the high production profits of aluminum enterprises will stimulate the accelerated launch of electrolytic aluminum production capacity; The prevention and control of air pollution in the north in winter led to the suspension of production by some aluminum companies, as well as the weakening of downstream demand at the end of the year, and the domestic aluminum market inventory entered the accumulation cycle, and the performance of aluminum prices was weak
.
However, overseas demand has improved, aluminum inventories continue to deteriorate, and the recent closure of the import arbitrage window will curb the inflow of overseas goods and help aluminum prices stabilize
.