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On Thursday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, with the highest 20,360 yuan / ton, the lowest 19,200 yuan / ton, closing at 19,920 yuan, down 4.
14% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2677 / ton, down 0.
43%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) As of October 28, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 985,000 tons, an increase of 09,000 tons from Monday (October 25), and 689,000 tons
in the same period last year.
(2) Shanxi issued a notice on peak-shifting production in autumn and winter 2021-2022, proposing to implement autumn-winter peak-shifting production
for enterprises in key gas-related industries such as steel, coking and nonferrous metals (electrolytic aluminum, alumina) from November 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022.
(3) The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission convened a meeting of the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal enterprises to study specific measures
to intervene in coal prices.
The meeting focused on measures to intervene in coal prices, including specific issues
such as the scope of intervention, the modalities of intervention, the price level, the timing of implementation, and safeguard measures.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19320-19360 yuan / ton, the average price was 19340 yuan / ton, down 1140 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Holders actively adjusted prices and shipments, receiving parties were bearish and wait-and-see, continued to reduce prices and less mining, and the trading atmosphere was not
good.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 132384 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; LME aluminum stocks 1051350 tons, down 3,950 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2112 contract held 133972 lots, minus 1770 lots per day, 128837 short positions, 14142 lots per day, 5135 net long positions, net short to net long, long and short reduction
.
Market research and judgment: Recently, the national high-level continued to curb excessive speculative speculation, the coal system fell sharply, with the rapid discharge of thermal coal, the market's cost expectations for electrolytic aluminum are also gradually lowered, and aluminum ingots are still in a state of accumulation, short-term aluminum price performance is weak
.
However, the dual control of energy consumption superimposed on the heating season and dry period in the fourth quarter, electrolytic aluminum companies may expand the scale of production reduction, and the medium and long term may bring support
to aluminum prices.
