The main force of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, and the market buyers and sellers showed a stalemate

Market focus: (1) The General Administration of Customs of China said that the second batch of applications for tariff leveling (US$60 billion) exclusion from the United States and Canada was submitted by October 18, 2019, and the relevant applications are under review
.
The Tax Commission will continue to carry out the exclusion of goods subject to tariffs on the United States and Canada, and the list of subsequent batches of exclusions will be published
in succession.
(2) Turkish bauxite producer CTC Mining Co.
, Ltd.
plans to rise bauxite by about 2.
1 million tons in 2020, produce about 600,000 tons this year, and have sold about 200,000 tons
to Chinese buyers so far.

Spot analysis: On December 26, SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 14490-14530 yuan / ton, the average price was 14510 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton
per day.
SMM reported that the receipt plan of a large household within the day was not fully realized, the market did not have many ticket goods in the month, the circulation was tight, the quotation of the holder was high, the actual transaction volume was not much, and the buyer and seller showed a stalemate, and the next month's ticket transaction was average
.
Downstream on-demand procurement is mainly within the day, the demand for the invoice of the month is not as obvious as in the previous period, the intraday receipt is general, and the price recognition is not high
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 43,070 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 402 tons, down 8 consecutive days; On December 24, LME aluminum stocks were 1484525 tons, down 1,100 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract are 76637 lots, 666 hands per day, short positions are 96415 lots, daily increase of 1219 lots, net short positions are 19778 lots, daily increase of 1885 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On December 26, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply in 2002
.
China's second batch of applications for tariff exclusion from tariffs imposed on the United States and Canada are under review, and there are positive developments in trade negotiations, while domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventories continue to deteriorate, falling below 600,000 tons, which supports aluminum prices, but the market still has doubts about the longer-term trade situation between China and the United States, while Turkey's CTC plans to increase bauxite production next year, bauxite supply is still abundant, China's alumina imports have increased significantly, port inventories continue to accumulate, raw material performance is weak, and pressure on aluminum prices has increased
。 In terms of spot, the receipt plan of a large household within the day has not been fully realized, the market has not many tickets and goods in the month, the circulation is tight, the quotation of the holder is high, the actual transaction volume is not much, and the buyer and seller are deadlocked, and the downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai aluminum is dead, and the main position is reduced and increased, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2002 contract can be short around 14070 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14120 yuan / ton
.