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On Tuesday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell and rebounded, with the highest 17715 yuan / ton and the lowest 16480 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 17085 yuan / ton, down 2.
57% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum fell and rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2234 / ton, down 1.
76%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) At 0:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and US Treasury Secretary Yellen will testify
before the House Financial Services Committee.
(2) It is reported that the national reserve has tried to sell the aluminum ingots before selling, and has explored the possibility of implementation with the domestic aluminum giants, and the amount rumored to involve is about 500,000-800,000 tons, but the specific detailed plan has not yet been clear
.
(3) In the week of March 21, the export volume of electrolytic aluminum in major regions of China was 2.
136 million tons, the same as the previous period's data, and the same period last year was 173,000 tons
.
Spot analysis: On March 23, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17200-17240 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17220 yuan / ton, down 320 yuan / ton
daily.
Changjiang Nonferrous reported that there are more shippers, inquiries and receipts have increased, and transaction activity has increased
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 160078 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 225 tons, a decline of 5 consecutive days; On March 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1964025 tons, down 3,250 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2105 contract 142361 lots, a daily decrease of 9840 lots, a short position of 156852 lots, a daily decrease of 7244 lots, a net short position of 14491 lots, a daily increase of 2596 lots, both long and short decreases, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On March 23, Shanghai aluminum 2105 fell and rebounded
.
The Fed's firm attitude to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy has eased market concerns about early interest rate hikes; However, US inflation is heating up and US Treasury yields are rising, and the dollar index is on the strong
side.
There is news that the State Reserve Bank plans to collect aluminum ingots before selling, rumored to involve a quantity of about 500,000-800,000 tons, which has caused concerns about increased supply and will weaken the impact of energy consumption control on aluminum production, increasing pressure on aluminum prices
.
However, aluminum ingot inventories have recently declined slightly, downstream demand has shown signs of recovery, and the demand outlook is optimistic
.
Technically, the mainstream long position reduction of the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell below the support of the 20-day moving average, and the market volatility is expected to be weak
.
