The main force of Shanghai aluminum continues to rise, and the market reception situation is not good

Market focus: (1) The Fed kept its benchmark overnight lending rate near zero and will continue to buy bonds, as well as a range of lending and liquidity programs
related to the response to the virus.
(2) Indonesia Antam Mining Company, a large bauxite producer, plans to produce about 100,000 tons in July, down from about
200,000 tons in June.
(3) According to the latest data from the Canadian Aluminum Association, as of the end of this month, Canada exported about 112,000 tons of A00 aluminum ingots to the United States in July, down about 30% from the previous month's 155,000 tons

Spot analysis: On July 30, spot A00 aluminum reported 14970-15010 yuan / ton, the average price was 14990 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 210 yuan / ton
.
Aluminum soared, holders shipped very actively, and the willingness to maintain value has converged, middlemen are still based on long-term order replenishment, a large household normal purchase within the day, from the procurement plan is relatively stable and began to accept next month's ticket goods, downstream on-demand stocking, due to the price rise, the willingness to buy is frustrated
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 97,372 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 727 tons; On July 29, LME aluminum stocks were 1648775 tons, a daily decrease of 9,400 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract are 73049 lots, a daily increase of 4976 lots, short positions of 96268 lots, a daily increase of 5584 lots, a net short position of 23219 lots, a daily increase of 608 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On July 30, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2009 continued to rise
.
The worsening pandemic in the United States and the deterioration of Sino-US relations have led to heightened concerns about the economic outlook; At the same time, the expansion of domestic electrolytic aluminum production profits will stimulate the further release of production capacity; And the import profit window remained open, stimulating the import supply of overseas sources, and the pressure on aluminum prices increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform well, procurement willingness is still good, Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to fall, and factory inventory continues to degrade, there is still room
above aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, large households purchase normally, spot goods are mainly discounted, and the market reception situation is not good
.
Technically, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, and the daily MACD indicator golden cross, it is expected that the short-term volatility is strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long lightly around 14650 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14550 yuan / ton
.