The main force of Shanghai aluminum continues to rise, and the enthusiasm of the market to receive goods is not high

Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
House of Representatives will vote on December 18 on two articles
to impeach President Trump.
(2) British Prime Minister Johnson said that once the Brexit on January 31 next year is confirmed, he will reject any proposal
to extend the transition period.
(3) Alumina production in November decreased by 9.
7% year-on-year to 5.
67 million tons, the lowest
since October 2018.
(4) Zhengzhou heavy pollution weather warning upgrade, according to the heavy pollution weather emergency response response according to the industry red warning production restriction measures, industrial enterprises in accordance with the "one factory, one policy" to implement production suspension or production restrictions
.

Spot analysis: On December 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14340-14380 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14360 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 240 yuan / ton
.
The tight supply of goods in the intraday market has not changed, the shipment volume of holders has increased under the high price, the middleman is still actively receiving goods, there are more buyers than sellers, the trading between the two sides is acceptable, and the plan of receiving goods by a large household has not been fully completed
.
Downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, due to excessive price increases, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 52,226 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 529 tons; On December 17, LME aluminum stocks were 1,444,300 tons, an increase of 41,225 tons per day, an increase of 7 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract were 80917 lots, a daily increase of 905 lots, short positions of 93287 lots, a daily increase of 2163 lots, a net short position of 12370 lots, a daily increase of 1258 lots, long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On December 18, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2002 continued to rise
.
Recent Chinese economic data performed better than expected, while domestic alumina production fell in November, which is conducive to the digestion of upstream inventories, supply-side pressure has been eased, superimposed on downstream demand has improved, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories have further dematerialized, aluminum prices have performed strongly, but the risk of Brexit intensifies, the weakening of the pound is positive for the US dollar, and the continuous increase in aluminum inventories, which is now rising to a two-year high, forming some pressure
on aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, the tight supply of goods in the intraday market has not changed, the shipment volume of holders has increased under high prices, middlemen are still actively receiving goods, and downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, because the price increase is too large, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, of which the mainstream long position increase was larger, and it is expected that the short-term continuation is strong
.