The main force of Shanghai aluminum continues to rise, and it is expected to rise slightly in the short term

Market focus: On the evening of November 1, the two sides had a serious and constructive discussion on properly addressing their core concerns, reached a consensus in principle, and discussed the next step of consultation arrangements
.
The US manufacturing PMI recorded 48.
3 in October, up from 47.
8 in September, but still below economists' expectations of 49.
1 and the third consecutive month below the boom-bust line
.
Malaysia will issue bauxite mining licences in December or January, though it will limit bauxite exports to 600,000 tonnes
per month.

Spot analysis: On November 4, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 14040-14080 yuan / ton, the average price was 14060 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 60 yuan / ton
.
The absolute price of spot within the day is higher, the premium has fallen slightly compared with last week, the willingness of the holder to ship has increased significantly, the shipment volume has increased, the middleman is still actively receiving the goods, the trading of the two sides is more active, although a large household plans to receive more than 10,000 tons, but because the process of first goods and later payment is more difficult for the holder to accept, the actual is not full
.
Downstream manufacturers purchase on demand, more afraid of heights, and did not clearly show their willingness to
replenish on Monday.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 65,721 tons, a daily decrease of 475 tons, down 13 consecutive days; On November 1, LME aluminum stocks were 956,200 tons, a daily decrease of 2,850 tons, a 13-day
decline.
As of the week ended November 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory was 278736 tons, a weekly decrease of 16,101 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 71127 lots, minus 2763 lots, short positions are 85145 lots, daily increase of 927 lots, net short positions are 14018 lots, daily increase of 3690 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.

U.
S.
economic data performed less than expected, putting pressure on the dollar, while China's Caixin manufacturing PMI picked up for four consecutive months, coupled with good Sino-US trade, optimism warmed up, and the current electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to degrade, coupled with the impact of environmental protection production restrictions, aluminum prices performed strongly, and upstream Malaysia will relax bauxite export restrictions, bauxite supply will increase, while downstream demand is still weak, and there is still capacity in the fourth quarter, there is some pressure
on aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, the absolute price of spot is higher, the premium has slightly decreased compared with last week, the willingness of holders to ship has increased significantly, middlemen are still actively receiving goods, and downstream manufacturers purchase
on demand.
Technically, the daily MACD red column increment of the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to rise slightly in the short term
.