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On Tuesday, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline, with the highest 16075 yuan / ton and the lowest 15615 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 15655 yuan / ton, down 2.
97% from the previous trading day's closing price; In terms of external trading, LME aluminum continued to decline, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1999 US dollars / ton, down 1.
36%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) After the discovery of a more infectious variant of the new crown virus in the UK, more than 40 countries around the world, from Germany to Chile, have banned people departing from the UK from entering the country or only allowed their own citizens with new crown test reports to enter.
(2) British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pushed for a last-minute Brexit trade deal with a new proposal on fishing rights, which the EU is considering
.
(3) International Aluminum Association, in November 2020, the world's primary aluminum production was 5471 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
11%, and the average daily output was 182.
4 thousand tons; from January to November, the world's primary aluminum production accumulated 59707 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
56%.
Spot analysis: On December 22, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16330-16370 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16350 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders actively shipped, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was average, and the transaction activity was average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 67,908 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 76 tons, a continuous decline of 26 days; On December 21, LME aluminum stocks were 1390350 tons, an increase of 23,325 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2102 contract are 59355 lots, a daily increase of 3215 lots, short positions are 78237 lots, a daily increase of 3506 lots, net short positions are 18882 lots, a daily increase of 291 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On December 21, Shanghai aluminum 2102 continued to decline
.
The United Kingdom and South Africa have mutated the new crown virus, the epidemic situation has deteriorated rapidly, there is huge uncertainty about the impact of the epidemic, and market worries are heating up; The positive news of Brexit and the US stimulus package moderated market sentiment
to some extent.
Serious pollution weather in Henan and other places has recently caused local aluminum companies to face production cuts and production restrictions, which is not conducive to downstream demand prospects; And the lack of overseas demand and the recent concentrated delivery of London copper inventories have put pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, at present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, coupled with the good performance of downstream demand, Shanghai aluminum inventory maintains a low level of slight destocking, and there is support
below the aluminum price.
Technically, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, and the mainstream short position increase was large, and it is expected to be weak and volatile
in the short term.
