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On Thursday, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum continued to rise sharply, with the highest 15415 yuan / ton and the lowest 15130 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 15350 yuan / ton, up 1.
12% from the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fluctuated up, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1924 US dollars / ton, up 0.
37%
per day.
Market focus: (1) The ECB warned on Wednesday that the coronavirus vaccine will not have an immediate impact on the economy and hinted that the ECB will adopt more stimulus policies
.
Spot analysis: On November 12, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15470-15510 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15490 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 140 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders shipped at high prices, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods declined, the downstream procurement was flat, and the transaction activity weakened
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 115885 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 7489 tons; On November 11, LME aluminum stocks were 1419225 tons, a daily decrease of 6,225 tons, down for 8 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contract were 83817 lots, an increase of 704 lots per day, 100563 short positions were 815 lots per day, and 16746 net short positions were 111 lots per day.
Market research and judgment: On November 12, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2012 continued to rise
sharply.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, and the decline in the Shanghai ratio also limited the inflow of overseas sources, domestic spot inventory continued to degrade, is now close to the low level at the beginning of the year, the tight supply makes the market price willingness is higher, aluminum price performance is relatively strong
.
However, the global epidemic situation continues to deteriorate, the economic outlook is still facing risks, and US Treasury yields continue to climb, supporting the US dollar index to the upside; Coupled with the continued weakening of alumina prices, the high profit of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch, which will pose a resistance
to aluminum prices.
Technically, the increase in the position of the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum continued to rise, and the mainstream short position increase was slightly larger, and it is expected to be adjusted strongly in the short term
.
