The main force of aluminum will rebound, and the repair of domestic demand will strengthen price support

Market focus: (1) On the 4th, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, and the interest rate was lowered by 50 basis points to the largest
in more than ten years.
(2) China's Caixin services PMI recorded 26.
5 in February, down 25.
3 percentage points, and China's Caixin composite PMI recorded 27.
5 in February, down 24.
4 percentage points
.

Spot analysis: On March 4, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 12990-13030 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13010 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton
per day.
Intraday morning traders trading is acceptable, a large account released more than 10,000 procurement plans, the second trading stage aluminum prices fell, spot discount did not significantly narrow, the cargo sentiment under the low price of the holder was frustrated, shipments converged, other middlemen received goods at low prices very actively, the market transaction price rose slightly earlier, but at this time the transaction heat fell, the actual transaction was slightly general
.
Downstream intraday on-demand purchase is the mainstay, the performance is wait-and-see, and the receipt of goods is flat
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 220257 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 550 tons per day, an increase of 9 consecutive days; On March 3, LME aluminum stocks were 1061375 tons, down 10,500 tons per day, down 15 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2005 contract were 83362 lots, a daily increase of 2391 lots, short positions were 95227 lots, a daily increase of 4905 lots, a net short position of 11865 lots, a daily increase of 2514 lots, long and short increased, and net space increased
.

The main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2005 rebounded
.
The global pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, with more than 10,000 confirmed cases abroad, and the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is worsening; China's Caixin composite PMI data recorded a record low of 27.
5 in February, while downstream processing enterprises resumed work slowly, and recent Shanghai aluminum inventories continued to accumulate, coupled with the release of aluminum smelting capacity in many areas, inventory pressure continued to increase
.
However, expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March have heated up, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the second quarter, the US dollar is under pressure to the downside, and global monetary easing expectations have strengthened; At the same time, the epidemic situation in China has improved, and as transportation gradually resumes, downstream procurement will continue to increase, which is conducive to easing the current inventory pressure; In addition, the Chinese government plans to expand infrastructure investment, which is conducive to the repair of demand and strengthens the support for aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, intraday morning traders traded fairly, a large household released a purchase plan of more than 10,000, the sentiment of shipments under the low price of the holder was frustrated, the shipment volume converged, other middlemen received goods at low prices very actively, and the downstream intraday on-demand purchase was the mainstay, and the performance was wait-and-see
.
Technically, the shadow line of the main 2005 contract of Shanghai aluminum is downward, and the mainstream short position increase is large, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.