The main force of aluminum continued to rise sharply, and it is expected that the short-term high will fluctuate

Market focus: (1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed has not run out of ammunition and can take more measures
if needed.
(2) China's primary aluminum output in April was 2.
97 million tons, an increase of 1.
5% year-on-year; Total output from January to April was 11.
83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
4%.

(3) From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3.
3103 billion yuan, down 3.
3% year-on-year, and the decline was 4.
4 percentage points
narrower than that from January to March.

Spot analysis: On May 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13130-13170 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13150 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 130 yuan / ton
.
Intraday market traders are actively trading, and the market is still bullish on strong spot sentiment in the short term
.
Downstream replenishment within the day, the transaction is acceptable, but due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the sentiment is slightly lower than last Friday
.
The overall transaction in East China was relatively good
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 165581 tons, a daily decrease of 1928 tons, a continuous decline of 21 days; On May 15, LME aluminum stocks were 1419675 tons, an increase of 58,100 tons
per day.
As of the week of May 15, the previous Shanghai aluminum inventory was reported 352342 tons, a weekly decrease of 36,557 tons, a decline of 8 consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract are 93458 lots, with a daily increase of 1917 lots, short positions of 122430 lots, a daily increase of 2333 lots, a net short position of 28972 lots, a daily increase of 416 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

At present, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises continues to rise, and the recent increase in aluminum processing fees, and the demand has improved significantly; And the current willingness to resume production of electrolytic aluminum has increased, but the release rate is still slow, so the domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod stocks have continued to dematerialize, and aluminum prices still have upward momentum
.
However, overseas have been greatly affected by the epidemic, coupled with the high ratio of Shanghai, resulting in suppressed aluminum exports and weak export demand; In the long run, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, limiting the upside
of aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, intraday market traders are actively trading, and in the short term, the market's strong spot sentiment is still unabated, and the downstream intraday replenishment
is normal.
Technically, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, but the mainstream short position increased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term high.