The main contract of Shanghai copper rose slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate at a short-term low

On January 22, LME copper recovered slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $6164.
5 / ton, up 0.
31%
per day.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper rose slightly, with the highest 48,650 yuan / ton and the lowest 48,280 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 48,540 yuan / ton, up 0.
25%
from the closing price of the previous trading day.

Market focus: (1) US President Trump issued another tariff threat, saying that if a fair agreement with Europe cannot be reached, he will seriously consider imposing tariffs
on European imported cars.
(2) Officially, the new coronavirus may mutate, and there is a risk
of further spread of the epidemic.
(3) ICSG data, global refined copper production in October 2019 was 2.
07 million tons, consumption was 2.
11 million tons, the global refined copper market supply shortage was 33,000 tons, and the shortage in September was 89,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On January 22, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 48160-48340 yuan / ton, with an average price of 48250 yuan / ton, a daily drop of 140 yuan / ton
.
Market quotations are becoming fewer and fewer, most of the downstream is suspended for holidays, buying is more rare, holders who are still in the market have no intention of further expanding the discount, quotation performance is stable, the Spring Festival is coming, logistics has stopped, warehousing is also tomorrow's holiday, most of the enterprises have also entered the Spring Festival holiday state, market trading has completely highlighted the holiday atmosphere of the Spring Festival year
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 72,310 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 1,758 tons per day; On January 21, LME copper stocks stood at 162925 tonnes, up 38,700 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract were 87022 lots, minus 2982 lots per day, short positions were 90474 lots, daily minus 3621 lots, net short positions were 3452 lots, daily minus 639 lots, long and short were reduced, net space decreased
.

On January 22, the main force of Shanghai copper in 2003 fluctuated slightly
.
US President Trump issued another tariff threat, aggravating trade tensions between the United States and Europe, coupled with the possibility of the spread of China's pneumonia epidemic, market risk aversion heated, while China's refined copper production in December last year further increased, and global copper overt inventory rebounded, putting pressure on copper prices, but copper processing fees TC is at a low level, global copper mine supply is still tight, superimposed downstream copper production also maintains a high growth rate, copper prices below still support
。 In terms of spot, there are fewer and fewer market offerers, most of the downstream are suspended for holidays, buying orders are more rare, and the holders who are still in the market have no intention of further expanding the discount, and the quotation performance is stable
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily MA5 of Shanghai copper crossed MA10 downward, focusing on the support at the 48170 position, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term low.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2003 contract can be sold high and low in the range of 48320-48620 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton
each.