The main contract of Shanghai copper rose sharply, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term

Market focus: (1) The People's Bank of China carried out a 200 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, of which the winning interest rate of the MLF operation was reduced by 10 basis points
.
(2) From 0:00 on February 17 to the end of the epidemic prevention and control work, toll roads nationwide will be exempted from vehicle tolls
.

Spot analysis: On February 17, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 45700-45980 yuan / ton, with an average price of 45840 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 190 yuan / ton
.
Intraday market quotations have been seen that the spot discount after tomorrow's change of month will have a further expansion trend, short-term supply is sufficient, and later in the week, if the source of warehouse receipts returns to the spot market, and the demand has not recovered, logistics and transportation also need to wait for the latest policy guidance of the government, the pattern of oversupply will continue
.
And after the completion of delivery, it is difficult for warehouse receipt trading to have sustainable trading favor, and the performance of spot trading difficulties will still be difficult to improve
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 156277 tons on Monday, an increase of 13,289 tons per day, an increase of 14 consecutive days; On February 14, LME copper stocks were 162375 tons, down 2,175 tons per day, falling for four consecutive days
.
In the week ended February 14, the stock of copper cathode on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 262738 tons, an increase of 56,484 tons
per week.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2004 contract were 65189 lots, a daily increase of 4134 lots, short positions were 82266 lots, a daily increase of 3461 lots, a net short position of 17077 lots, a daily decrease of 673 lots, both long and short increased, and the net space decreased
.

On February 17, Shanghai copper main force 2004 rose
sharply.
On the 17th, the People's Bank of China carried out 200 billion yuan MLF operation and 100 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, of which the MLF interest rate was reduced by 10 basis points, which will guide the LPR interest rate to be reduced; More than 1,000 people have been cured and discharged from hospitals for 5 consecutive days nationwide, and the new confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas have fallen for 13 consecutive days, market sentiment has been repaired, and copper prices can be strengthened
.
However, the US economic data is strong, and the US dollar continues to be high; The start of downstream copper is expected to be postponed to the end of the month, coupled with logistics restrictions, Shanghai copper stocks continue to accumulate, which will put some pressure
on copper prices.
In terms of spot, the spot discount after tomorrow's change of month will have a further expansion trend, short-term supply is sufficient, and later in the week, if the source of warehouse receipts returns to the spot market, and demand has not recovered, logistics and transportation also need to wait for the latest policy guidance of the government, the pattern of oversupply will continue
.
Technically, the main 2004 contract of Shanghai copper broke the previous high, and the daily MACD golden cross signs, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term
.