The main contract of Shanghai aluminum stopped falling and rebounded, and it is expected that there will be more short-term volatility

Market focus, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's GDP in the second quarter was 6.
2% year-on-year, 6.
2% expected, and 6.
4% in the previous month; China's second-quarter GDP was 1.
6% month-on-month, 1.
5% expected and 1.
4%
prior.
The International Bureau of Statistics announced that China's primary aluminum production in June was 2.
97 million tons, an increase of 1.
3% year-on-year; From January to June, primary aluminum production increased by 2.
2% from the same period last year to 17.
41 million tons
.
According to foreign media news, the relevant personnel of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy, Mineral Resources confirmed that because Indonesia's six bauxite smelters are about to complete construction and can be put into operation in a short period of time, it is expected that Indonesia will stop the export
of raw ore in 2022.

Spot analysis, on July 15, spot A00 aluminum quotation 13780-13820 yuan / ton, the average price of 13800 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
The morning market is full of supply, holders actively shipped, driven by the rhythm of large households receiving more than 10,000 tons, the market transaction is active, the intermediary trading is also positive, after 11:00 the spot price rose sharply, the market transaction activity fell significantly, because the month is close to change and the market is expected to be strong in the future, the holder is slightly uppriced, although the receiver is more but more afraid of heights, the buyer and seller transaction at this time is
deadlocked.
Downstream weekend return day will be partially replenished, and the receipt is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory, the total of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 154445 tons, a daily decrease of 821 tons; On July 12, LME aluminum stocks were 926875 tons, a daily decrease of 7,625 tons, and a decline of 46 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended July 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory was 419,050 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,662 tons
.

During the day, the main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum stopped falling and rebounded
.
The Fed cut interest rates at the end of the month or no suspense, the US dollar continued its weak trend, and Indonesia may stop the export of raw ore in 2022, which is positive for aluminum prices, but weak downstream demand has put some pressure
on aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the morning market has sufficient supply, holders actively ship, driven by the rhythm of large households receiving more than 10,000 tons, the market transaction is active, the middleman trading is also active, and then the price rises sharply, and the market transaction activity declines
significantly.
Technically, the daily MACD red column of the main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum is growing, and it is expected that there will be more
short-term volatility.