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On February 13, LME aluminum opened low on Thursday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1729 US dollars / ton, down 0.
26%
on a daily basis.
The main 2004 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened low and continued to fall, with the highest 13770 yuan / ton and the lowest 13720 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 13730 yuan / ton, down 0.
22% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 19,797 lots, and the daily decrease was 4,158 lots; The position was 92876 lots, an increase of 1841 lots
per day.
The basis is 80 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai and aluminum in 2003-2004 narrowed to -25 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his confidence in the US economy, suggesting that the "standing still" interest rate policy remains unchanged
for the time being.
(2) The number of new confirmed cases in Hubei surged by 14,840, due to the addition of "clinical diagnosis"
to the classification of case diagnosis.
Spot analysis: On February 13, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13590-13630 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13610 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Traders in Shanghai and Tin are more active, and the transaction between the two sides is acceptable, but due to the restrictions on the entry and exit of warehouses in East China, most traders only circulate
in the warehouse.
Downstream manufacturers have not been well grasped
when receiving goods.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 143066 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 6604 tons, an increase of 11 consecutive days; On February 12, LME aluminum stocks were 1,232,200 tons, down 7,600 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2004 contract were 65630 lots, an increase of 616 lots per day, short positions were 72929 lots, a daily increase of 1076 lots, a net short position of 7299 lots, a daily increase of 460 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: On February 13, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened low in 2004 and continued to fall
.
Powell reiterated his confidence in the US economic outlook at the hearing, and the dollar index continued to be strong; The surge in new confirmed cases in Hubei has increased risk aversion due to the increase in "clinical diagnosis"; At the same time, the resumption of work of downstream aluminum enterprises in Shanghai aluminum inventory has been greatly affected, which will affect downstream demand, and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has shown an upward trend, currently reaching a high level since September last year, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
Academician Zhong Nanshan said that the peak of the epidemic may appear in mid-to-late February, and the epidemic situation in non-Hubei areas is declining, which has partially supported
aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, traders in Shanghai and tin are more active, and the transaction between the two sides is acceptable, but due to the restrictions on the entry and exit of warehouses in East China, most traders only circulate in the warehouse, and downstream manufacturers have not been well grasped
.
Technically, the main 2004 contract daily MACD green column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, mainstream positions increase and decrease more, is expected to be slightly under
pressure in the short term.
