The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and pulled back and performed relatively strongly

Market focus: (1) The new crown mRNA vaccine jointly developed by Pfizer of the United States and BioNTech of Germany has been shown to prevent 90% of infections
in clinical phase III trials.
(2) China's CPI rose 0.
5% year-on-year and 0.
3% month-on-month in October 2020
.
(3) China's bauxite output in October was about 7.
02 million tons, an increase of 8.
67%
month-on-month and year-on-year.
Production from January to October totaled about 66.
3 million tons, down 11.
1%
from the same period last year.

Spot analysis: On November 10, spot A00 aluminum reported 15160-15200 yuan / ton, the average price was 15180 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton
per day.
The quotation of the cargo holder was firm, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was general, and the downstream was afraid of heights and wait-and-see, and the transaction activity declined
slightly.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 108748 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 10,457 tons; On November 9, LME aluminum stocks were 1431575 tons, down 6,100 tons per day, down for 6 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contract are 72600 lots, a daily increase of 2279 lots, short positions are 91449 lots, a daily increase of 3789 lots, a net short position of 18849 lots, a daily increase of 1510 lots, long and short increases, and net short increases
.

Market research and judgment: On November 10, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened high in 2012
.
Pfizer and BioNTech in the United States announced that the new crown vaccine is more than 90% effective, better than market expectations, but the global epidemic situation continues to deteriorate, and there are doubts
about whether the vaccine can be widely popularized.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventory continued to deteriorate, falling to a new low since July, and the tight supply made the market willing to raise prices higher, and aluminum prices performed
strongly.
However, alumina prices continue to weaken, and the high profit of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch; And the downstream aluminum rod processing fee still continues the downward trend, which will also inhibit the recovery of the operating rate of processing enterprises, which will cause resistance
to aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position to close the doji, and the mainstream short position increase was large, and it is expected that the short-term pullback will fluctuate
.
In operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 14750-15000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 80 yuan / ton
each.